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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd