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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement receives the prize. However, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.

However the latest competition is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and longtime also-rans rising together. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and fun season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

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